Recently, a game called "cigarette card" has become popular, and this toy made of cigarette box cover has almost become the hot flow of some short video platforms. So how did "cigarette cards" become toys? Can "cigarette cards" be sold? Will it have a bad influence on children? With these questions, the reporter conducted an investigation.

　　"cigarette card" spreads and sells the hardest hit areas.

　　Mostly short video platforms.

　　First of all, the reporter’s understanding of the "cigarette card" is in a short video in Tik Tok. A child rummages around the ground with a plastic bag, and the dialogue expresses that he is looking for a cigarette case on the ground. Then the boy skillfully tears open the cigarette case and folds the lid to make a "cigarette card". For how to use this game prop made of cigarette cases, a large number of video covers featuring children will appear immediately after entering "cigarette card" on the vibrato platform. The introduction of "smoke card" in different videos is also varied. The most conventional way of playing is to put the cigarette card on the ground and take turns to shoot it. Whoever can flip the other person’s cigarette card will win the other person’s cigarette card, and the more expensive the cigarette, the more advanced the cigarette card.

　　The reporter found that in some short video platforms, there are also many self-media bloggers who shoot "smoke cards" to make videos, with thousands of praises. After searching for "cigarette cards" on Tik Tok, a large number of videos involving "cigarette cards" will appear, and most of the protagonists on the front pages of these videos are children. The number of likes of these "Smoke Card" videos featuring children even reached more than 100,000, among which a Tik Tok author with more than 1.5 million fans liked a video of "Smoke Card" up to 130,000. Another Tik Tok author’s video content is to encourage children to play with "cigarette cards", and specially bought cigarettes to make "cigarette cards" for children, with the caption "I feel very proud to collect so many cigarette cards in front of children at once".

　　The reporter found that some publishers of these videos about "cigarette cards" hung up a link to sell "cigarette cards" in the lower right corner of the video. When you click in, you will find that it is actually a shop selling "cigarette cards", and the price ranges from 3 yuan to tens of yuan. Some merchants have marked slogans such as "First-hand goods, see who has more than me" and "There is a high probability of exploding rare cards, and my mother no longer has to worry about me going out to pick up cigarette cases".

　　The reporter also noticed that the "cigarette card" was not only on the short video platform, but also on the e-commerce platform. After searching for "cigarette cards" on a shopping platform, it is found that there are many buyers of some goods called "out of print", "rare" and "cigarette cards", and the store with the highest sales volume on the homepage shows that "20,000+"has been sold. Searching for the same keyword on another shopping platform will show the goods that have been "spelled 1 million+pieces". On the Internet, the price of a "cigarette card" generally ranges from 10 cents to 50 cents, and some "rare models" are more expensive. Among them, the price of a card book containing 200 rare and non-repetitive cards is as high as 399 yuan. Most brands emphasize that they are "real cigarette cases, no printing" in a conspicuous position on the page, and most buyers’ comments are "children like them very much". However, the reporter also noticed that some buyers mentioned some problems in their comments, such as "cigarette cards", "some dirty, garbage recycling at first glance" and "obvious smoke smell".

　　Wholesalers push hard.

　　Stationery shopkeepers resolutely resist.

　　In addition to these "cigarette cards" sold online, are there any "cigarette cards" sold in places where children can buy them in life? The reporter visited stationery stores near different primary schools such as Heping District, Nankai District and Hexi District, and found no cigarette cards for sale. During the interview, the female shopkeeper of the stationery store next to Pingshan Road Primary School in Hexi District told the reporter, "There are’ cigarette cards’ in the wholesalers, and they also told us that’ cigarette cards’ are particularly popular now, and they will definitely sell well. However, considering that everything related to cigarettes is not good, there are many children who come to buy things here, and we have to check for our parents and not sell everything. We think that thing is unsanitary, and the cigarette case is used to hold cigarettes, and it is all used up by others. How dirty it is. "

　　Regarding the possible harm caused by the "cigarette card", will the "cigarette card" make children bury the possibility of smoking? A male shopkeeper who runs a stationery store near the Water Park Primary School in Nankai District said, "I will never sell that thing in my shop." He said that he smokes, and he has given up smoking many times without success. He absolutely does not allow his children to smoke. In his view, "cigarette cards" are being sold all over the internet, which means that some people are cultivating potential consumers, all know that smoking is harmful to health, and it is "too hateful" to seduce children to play with "cigarette cards".

　　Bad Push of Short Video

　　Parents feel that the hidden danger is huge.

　　What is the impression of "cigarette card" among parents and children? The reporter interviewed the parents of Xikang Road Primary School in Heping District after school hours and talked about the "cigarette card". A parent who was picking up the child told the reporter that he knew that there was such a toy as "cigarette card" from his son, and his son also asked his father for a cigarette case to do it himself. He said, "When my son was in the fourth grade, I suddenly felt something was wrong when he asked for a cigarette case that day, so I asked him carefully. My son showed me a short video on his mobile phone showing you how to fold a cigarette case, so I didn’t let him see it at that time, telling him that cigarettes contain nicotine, which will make people sick." The parent said frankly, "Many popular games are now played in Tik Tok, and some should not be played for children at all. I now forbid our children to watch Tik Tok."

　　This parent’s statement resonated with many parents. A parent with a girl at home showed reporters the short video records that his children had browsed on his mobile phone, including the push of "cigarette cards". This parent feels that some short video platforms now start to push regardless of good or evil after collecting personal big data, and the "smoke card" is also on fire. He said: "Because the children in primary school are still young, the possible negative effects on cigarette cards while playing games cannot be distinguished and resisted, so schools and parents should intervene in time once they find out."

　　The sale of "cigarette cards" is suspected of being illegal.

　　There is a ban on the education department.

　　The reporter learned by inquiring about the relevant legal provisions that according to the relevant provisions of the Regulations on the Implementation of the Tobacco Monopoly Law of People’s Republic of China (PRC), the trademarks cut off from discarded cigarette cases, that is, the items called "cigarette cards" by children, are not allowed to be sold by merchants in any way. At the same time, the tobacco monopoly law clearly stipulates that the trademark logo of tobacco products must be printed by enterprises designated by the provincial administrative department for industry and commerce, and non-designated enterprises may not print the trademark logo of tobacco products. The Law on the Protection of Minors also stipulates that there should be no sales outlets for cigarettes, alcohol and lottery tickets around schools and kindergartens, and it is forbidden to sell cigarettes, alcohol and lottery tickets to minors or pay lottery prizes.

　　According to media reports, at the end of March this year, law enforcement officers of Haikou City Supervision Bureau of Hainan Province conducted special inspections on the sales of "cigarette cards" in stationery stores and toy stores around schools in their jurisdiction. On April 7th, the Education Bureau of Sanya City, Hainan Province issued "Important Tips for Preventing Students from Addicting to" Cigarette Card "Games", which made it clear that "Cigarette Card" comes from discarded cigarette cases, and collecting it around and carrying it with you may endanger students’ physical and mental health; In addition, students may enlighten their gambling consciousness in the game and have interest and curiosity about smoking. Parents are requested to cooperate with the school to prohibit "cigarette cards" from entering the campus. Once the school finds that students bring "cigarette cards" into the school or find that students are playing "cigarette cards" on campus, it can immediately stop and confiscate the "cigarette cards" on the spot, and at the same time conduct oral education and give feedback to parents. Xinbao reporter Jie Jing The picture is a screenshot of Tik Tok

　

　　In 1969, when the Internet first appeared, people never imagined that it would penetrate into all fields of economic and social life with its unstoppable trend 30 years later. Nowadays, the gradual integration of the Internet and traditional industries and the increasingly blending of industrial boundaries have given birth to a new model of industrial development led by the Internet. With the rapid development of modern information network technologies such as big data and cloud computing, the Internet has further intensified the changes in the world economy, built a global industrial innovation and commercial marketing network, and will continue to be the main engine to promote economic and social development and lead the world to the future. On April 20, 1994, China fully accessed the Internet through the 64K international dedicated line, which opened the Internet era in China and became an indispensable part of the work and life of hundreds of millions of people. China has become a veritable Internet power.

　

　　Internet has penetrated into all fields of social life.

　　How people’s lives are internetized? Let’s first look at a set of data. According to CNNIC data, in 2003, the number of netizens in China was 79 million, and the Internet penetration rate was 4.6%. By the end of 2015, the number of netizens in China had reached 688 million, and the Internet penetration rate was 50.3%, ranking first in the world. The development of mobile Internet is advancing by leaps and bounds. In 2015, the number of mobile Internet users in China was 620 million, with a penetration rate of nearly 90%, which was 30 percentage points higher than that in the world. From the early days of sending e-mails, publishing and inquiring information through the Internet, it has gradually developed into social chatting with QQ, WeChat, online shopping, online map navigation, etc., and the Internet has penetrated into all fields of people’s lives. In 2015, the number of online education users in China reached 110 million, accounting for 16% of netizens; The number of Internet medical users is 152 million, accounting for 22.1% of netizens. The number of online taxi booking users is 96.64 million, and the number of online car booking users is 21.65 million. The inclusive, convenient and sharing characteristics of the Internet have penetrated into the field of public services, accelerated the application of socialization, innovated social governance methods, improved the level of public services, and promoted the improvement of people’s livelihood and social harmony.

China has set off a wave of online movie shooting. According to industry insiders, online movies will be on an equal footing with cinema films in the future, even surpassing traditional cinema films.

　　Internet has become the standard of all working departments, from government departments to enterprises, it is more and more widely used to obtain information, process documents and all kinds of exchanges and transactions. According to CNNIC data, by the end of 2015, the proportion of enterprises in China using computers for office work was 95.2%, the proportion using the Internet was 89.0%, the proportion using the Internet through fixed broadband access was 86.3%, and the proportion using mobile broadband was 23.9%. In addition, the proportion of online sales and online procurement is 32.6% and 31.5% respectively, and the proportion of marketing promotion activities using the Internet is 33.8%. Enterprises widely use a variety of internet tools to carry out communication, information acquisition and release, internal management, business services and other activities, and a considerable number of enterprises have applied systematic and integrated internet tools to the whole business processes such as production research and development, procurement and sales, financial management, customer relations, human resources, etc., and transformed the Internet from a single auxiliary tool into enterprise management methods and transformation ideas to help supply chain reform.

　　In recent years, the Internet economy has developed rapidly. China’s Internet economy was born in the mid-1990s. Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba were the pioneers and main forces in the development of China’s Internet economy in the early days. Later, Internet companies such as Qihoo, Sina, JD.COM and Renren appeared. At present, BAT (Baidu, Ali and Tencent) has become an internationally renowned Internet giant. Alibaba’s e-commerce enterprises such as Taobao, Tmall, Alipay, JD.COM, Suning and other related service enterprises such as logistics and distribution, warehousing, and network design have formed a new e-commerce ecosystem, leading to the construction of a big platform and a big channel for Internet consumption, so that consumers can shop and consume through the Internet. Relevant data show that in 2015, the scale of e-commerce transactions in China was 20.6 trillion yuan, of which the online retail transaction volume was 3.88 trillion yuan, which was 20.9 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period, accounting for 10.8% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. The number of consumers who used online shopping reached 413 million, making it the largest online retail market in the world for three consecutive years. It is estimated that the online retail market in China will reach 6.5 trillion yuan by 2018. And cross-border electronic commerce has become a beautiful landscape. In 2015, the cross-border e-commerce transaction volume exceeded 5 trillion yuan, accounting for 18% of the import and export trade. It has initially realized "buying the world and selling the world" through the Internet, and China residents can buy products from all over the world without leaving home.

　

　　Internet promotes a new model of industrial development.

　　As early as 2010, the White Paper "The Internet Situation in China" mentioned that the government and people of China are welcoming the arrival of the Internet era with a positive attitude, and China regards the development of the Internet as a major opportunity to promote the cause of reform, opening up and modernization. In essence, the penetration of the Internet into industries is to endow traditional industries with more attributes, raise traditional industries to a new level, and form a qualitative leap of industrial synergy, that is, the original non-Internet business will have a qualitative change of cross-border integration after being connected with the Internet, and this qualitative change is not only to improve efficiency, but also reflected in industrial restructuring.

Many shops in China have posted convenience notices supporting fast payment methods such as UnionPay payment, Alipay payment and WeChat payment.

　　Internet promotes the transformation from China manufacturing to China intelligent manufacturing. Through the integration of the Internet and industrial manufacturing, we will lead the manufacturing industry to "digital, networked and intelligent" transformation and upgrading. Germany’s "Industry 4.0" and America’s "Industrial Internet Alliance" all use the advantages of the Internet to enhance the value creativity of industry. The essence of "Made in China 2025" is to realize the progress from an industrial power to an industrial power through the polymerization and fission of the Internet and industry. Relevant data show that in 2014, about 46% of the global output in the global economy benefited from the industrial Internet. By 2020, the global expenditure on the industrial Internet will reach 500 billion US dollars, and by 2030, the industrial Internet will contribute 15 trillion US dollars to the global GDP. Haier’s digital interconnection factory is a typical case. Since 2012, Haier has planned to build a digital interconnected factory. By subverting and upgrading the traditional production mode, it has created an interconnected factory system with on-demand design, on-demand manufacturing and on-demand distribution, so that the whole manufacturing process can be highly flexible and meet the needs of personalized customization. At present, Haier has built four world-leading demonstration interconnected factories, including Shenyang refrigerator and Zhengzhou air conditioner. "Economic Daily" pointed out in the report that Haier’s exploration of the connected factory is to fully meet the individual needs of users around the world. The evaluation given by Xinhua News Agency is, "Behind Haier is the first landing of’ internet plus Household Appliances’. After ten years of exploration, Haier, who is reborn and full of’ interconnected taste’, is ready to come out. "

　　The Internet helps agricultural modernization, integrating the Internet and information technology such as perception, transmission, control and operation into all aspects of agricultural production, processing and sales, and realizing the intelligence, standardization and standardization of agriculture, namely, intelligent agriculture mode, agricultural e-commerce mode and Internet agricultural industrial chain mode. Its function not only enables Internet technology to transform agricultural production links and improve agricultural labor productivity and production level, but also uses Internet technology to control the whole production and operation process to ensure product quality, and even uses Internet technology to carry out innovative design of product marketing, so as to realize the traceability of the whole process of agriculture and the intelligent and networked operation of the whole industrial chain. The Internet brings new data, information and new technical means, which makes all links in the agricultural industrial chain and all market segments in the agricultural field have more tools, conditions and possibilities for innovation. Such as the application of Internet of Things in planting and animal husbandry, the application of remote sensing monitoring technology in grassland and fishery, the application of RFID technology in aquaculture, and the application of GPS technology in agricultural machinery. In addition, there are several obvious innovations in Internet agricultural business model, such as: agricultural materials e-commerce, land circulation e-commerce, urban and rural circulation channel reform, agricultural products e-commerce, agricultural big data, agricultural Internet of Things, leisure agriculture Internet platform and so on.

　　The Internet has changed the development mode of the service industry. Through Internet transmission and big data, the Internet has penetrated into all fields of the service industry, giving birth to many integrated network service platforms and emerging service models such as O2O. Only Alibaba, its business scope has involved e-commerce, social networks, logistics, finance, tourism, navigation, video entertainment, medical care, education, culture, sports and many other service industries. Around mobile social networking, O2O, LBS, etc., service companies have also developed and launched various applications, including online shopping, group buying, food, life information, maps, travel, weather, navigation, health, movies and so on. "internet plus Communication", QQ, WeChat, Momo, etc. appeared; "internet plus Traffic" has appeared taxi software such as Didi Kuaidi; The intelligent circulation of "internet plus Logistics" makes intelligent logistics scheduling, intelligent logistics rhythm control and intelligent warehouse storage by using information network management and injecting intelligent data analysis. Internet medical treatment includes health education, raw material information inquiry, electronic health records, disease risk assessment, online disease consultation, online registration, online prescription and so on. Internet education has created various P2P interactive and intelligent education platforms, such as Yizuowang. In addition, there are various new service modes based on the Internet, such as Internet tourism and Internet catering.

The 2nd China Digital Reading Conference in 2016

　　The Internet has given birth to a new model of inclusive finance and banking services. Through the Internet platform and payment technology, financial institutions are directly connected with enterprises or individuals, which promotes the internetization of financial institutions, enhances their competitiveness in channels, data and technology, and enables Internet enterprises to participate in financial services, enriching traditional financial systems and products, and promoting inclusive finance, thus improving the productivity of the whole industry and promoting the enrichment of financial ecology. At present, the specific models include: internet finance, online payment, P2P network credit, internet banking, crowdfunding financing platform and so on. Its essence is to combine financial services with internet factors, use internet thinking, build a new model of internet financial services, and bring more benefits to financial consumers. At present, all the major banks in China have launched a banking service model led by Internet technology. For example, Ping An Bank has specially set up a network finance division, and built Internet portals for four major customer groups, including Orange E-Net, Pocket Bank, Orange Bank, Bank E-Link and Golden Orange Club. On orange e-net, users can join up with upstream and downstream trading partners to complete online order, online receipt and delivery, online settlement and cancellation of orders, and can carry out online financing, online insurance, investment and wealth management, capital appreciation and other financial management. The whole platform is open to customers free of charge, which greatly reduces the operating costs and financing costs of SMEs.

　　The Internet promotes the formation of a unified national market. The internet plus Research Report of Ali Research Institute pointed out that the combination of the Internet and the retail industry promoted the formation of a unified e-commerce market, released huge domestic consumption potential, and promoted the leap-forward development of China’s circulation industry in covering geographical scope and population. At the same time, thanks to the revolution of trading technology and business model, the efficiency and level of the circulation industry have been significantly improved by the Internet. Through the natural attribute of "distance-independent", the Internet has smoothed out the gap between systems and policies in different regions of the country, constructed unified access conditions, trading rules, credit systems, IT services, finance and logistics systems, and formed a de facto unified national market. Ali Research Institute estimates that the transaction efficiency of online retailing is four times that of physical retailing. At the same input cost in 1 yuan, the transaction volume of goods completed by physical retailing is 10.9 yuan, while that of online retailing is 49.6 yuan. The combination of the internet and the circulation industry has greatly released the consumption in the central and western regions and remote areas. Relevant data show that in 2015, the development of e-commerce and express logistics in the central region rose rapidly, and the year-on-year growth rates in Henan and Anhui even exceeded 70%.

　

　　Internet facilitates people’s life.

　　With the penetration of the Internet into the medical industry, new modes of Internet medical care are constantly emerging, including the registration network to solve the registration problem, the invention of various wearable devices, the APP to manage chronic diseases, and the online consultation of experts and doctors. On December 7, 2015, Wuzhen, Zhejiang Province took the lead in the emergence of the first Internet hospital in China. At present, there have been tool websites represented by registered websites and "360 Good Doctors Search" in the Internet medical industry. Consulting websites represented by "Spring Rain Pocket Doctor", "Seeking medical advice" and "Answering questions"; Major disease triage and referral websites represented by Good Doctor Online. In addition, there are 39 Health Net, which focuses on health education and information, 120ehr Net, which focuses on the collection and application of electronic health records, Yikang Net, which focuses on disease risk assessment, and Lilac Garden website, which focuses on professional doctor information. People can see a doctor at home, and they can make an appointment online in advance to go to the hospital, eliminating the distress of "No.1 is hard to find".

　　In the early days, the penetration of the Internet into the travel industry was mainly traditional car rental, special car, driving and other services. Later, carpooling and other services that can realize service sharing gradually appeared, and services were constantly innovated and upgraded. At present, most people have downloaded travel software such as Didi and Uber on their mobile phones, so it is fast and convenient to go out and call a car. In 2015, the proportion of Internet booking for passenger travel by air and railway in China was about 78% and 68% respectively, and the number of users who booked through the Internet exceeded 60%, which was steadily increasing. On the highway side, many highway travel platforms have extended their tentacles to personalized passenger transport business. According to public data, the 12308 national bus ticket is the largest cross-city O2O travel platform in China, which has been extended to 6,391 bus stations in 26 provinces, more than 3,000 cities in China, with the scale of operating lines reaching 3 million/day, and each ticketing cycle (based on 5 days) can put more than 700 million guest resources into the market. In addition, Internet travel platforms such as Ctrip.com, Tuniu.com, and Mama Donkey enable people to book hotels, travel pick-up stations, park tickets, etc. before traveling, and people can enjoy all-round intimate services through the Internet.

Use a laptop to record the participants who delivered the manuscript.

　　Internet ordering mode has injected new business opportunities and vitality into the traditional catering service industry, and gradually changed people’s living habits and consumption patterns. All kinds of Internet ordering platforms enable people who don’t want to cook to customize all kinds of delicious food at home through ordering platforms such as "Meituan" and "Hungry", and the food ordered can be delivered to their doors within one hour. Especially in rainy and snowy weather, online ordering allows people to stay at home and enjoy warm food conveniently with only their fingers, which greatly improves people’s quality of life. In 2010, the overall market size of catering industry in China was 1,768.1 billion yuan, and in 2014, it reached 2,813.2 billion yuan in China. In 2015, under the background of rapid economic development in China and the promotion of internet catering mode, the overall market size of catering industry in China reached 3,489.2 billion yuan, and it is estimated that it will reach 4,896.2 billion yuan in 2017.

　　In addition to the above-mentioned typical areas, online shopping, buying movie tickets through the Internet platform, paying online fees, receiving education and training online, ordering home decoration services online, finding nannies online, finding hourly workers, etc. At present, almost all areas of people’s lives can enjoy the convenience brought by the Internet. Lu Wei, director of the National Network Information Office, pointed out at the opening ceremony of the second Internet conference, Light of the Internet Expo, held in December 2015: "We should promote the Internet to enter thousands of households, guide the people to understand the world, master information, exchange ideas, innovate and start businesses, improve our lives, and let the fruits of Internet development benefit 1.3 billion people in China and benefit all mankind."

　　In the future, the impact of the Internet on people’s lives will be further revealed, and various business models and service models will emerge constantly. China people will enjoy the dividends and benefits brought by the Internet more and more, and China’s Internet economy will also become the core competitiveness of China from a big country to a strong country.

　

　　Zhang Li, Deputy Director and Research Fellow, E-commerce Research Department, Research Institute of Ministry of Commerce

　　

Original Zhao long’s bottom line thinking

Text/Observer Network columnist Zhao Long

Deputy Director and Researcher, Institute of Global Governance, Shanghai Institute of International Studies

Since the beginning of the year, the mentality changes of the United States, Europe, Russia, Ukraine and other parties about the Ukrainian crisis have gone through several obvious stages. On the one hand, "Ukraine can’t lose" is still the clearest target bottom line for the United States, Europe and Ukraine; On the other hand, strategic anxiety and war fatigue are constantly affecting social and political consensus, especially reflected in the domestic political agenda of some countries.

In this context, is a "long ceasefire" equal to a "long peace"? How to define the standard of victory and failure? How to evaluate the future applicability of "East-West Germany" and "Peninsula Model" in Ukraine is no longer a taboo topic discussed by all parties.

After Trump won the election, his campaign slogan of "ending the Ukrainian crisis within 24 hours" ignited the expectations of all parties for a ceasefire.

On November 16th, local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in an interview with the media that he was convinced that the war would end "faster than before" after Trump took office, and Ukraine would "make every effort to ensure that the war would end next year".

It is undeniable that in the Trump 2.0 period, Russia and Ukraine resumed some form of contact and even started ceasefire negotiations, which is worth looking forward to. To put it simply, Trump’s position on the Ukrainian crisis may include three aspects:

First, by threatening to interrupt aid, Ukraine was forced to return to the negotiating table and asked to make non-sovereign compromises on territorial issues;

Second, let Europe bear more economic costs, including expanding the procurement of American weapons to aid Ukraine and the main part of the funds needed for post-war reconstruction in Ukraine;

The third is to "freeze conflicts" based on Russia’s actual control line and persuade Russia to complete the transaction.

However, there seems to be some illusion that Trump can quickly end the war. In fact, Trump’s return is a necessary condition for Ukraine to achieve peace, but it is not a sufficient condition. Because although all parties support the resumption of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, there are many differences on what to talk about and how to talk about it.

For example, Europe insists that negotiations must be "beneficial to Ukraine", while Russia emphasizes "based on territorial reality" and the Istanbul Consensus in April 2022. Countries in the south of the world emphasize a ceasefire as soon as possible from the perspective of reducing casualties. According to the experience of various regional conflicts and local wars in the past, after the parties resume contact, they still need to complete a temporary ceasefire, start negotiations, establish a demilitarized zone, sign a ceasefire agreement, and establish an international supervision mechanism, so as to achieve lasting peace.

At the same time, the huge casualties suffered by Russia and Ukraine on the battlefield in the past three years and the contradiction of sovereignty over 18% of Ukraine’s total territory have determined that it is difficult for a single country or individual to achieve a ceasefire and stop the war on its own.

For Trump and his "MAGA" (Make America Great Again) line, reducing the economic cost paid by the American people for the Ukrainian crisis is the core concern. If Europe is willing to bear more economic costs and increase the purchase of American weapons to aid Ukraine, Trump may not exclude the Ukrainian crisis from continuing in a low-intensity way for the sake of maximizing his own interests. Even if the United States completely stops aid, Europe’s commitment and determination to support Ukraine cannot be underestimated, including continuing to break through legal disputes and using frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine.

What’s more, the "peace plan" proposed by Trump and his team involves "establishing a demilitarized zone according to the existing contact line, Ukraine’s commitment not to join NATO within 20 years, and establishing a ceasefire monitoring mechanism with the participation of a third party". These potential plans have been discussed many times in various second-track dialogues, and they are not very creative new ideas. Among them, European countries, not the United States, are responsible for supervising the implementation of the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and the vague statements on sensitive issues such as territorial control and ownership have led all parties to question the enforceability of the "peace plan."

For Russia, compared with the political and economic costs caused by the delay of the war, a simple "freezing conflict" may not be the best option. Before Trump takes office, Russia may launch a new wave of offensive against Ukraine, and set the main goal as to recover the "lost land" in Kursk region, and strive to limit the focus of future negotiations to the areas that Russia has not controlled in the four eastern Ukrainian States, instead of simply ceasing fire according to the actual contact line.

The most important thing is that Putin and the establishment forces in Russia have absolute distrust of the United States and Europe and will not be easily satisfied with signing the 3.0 version of the Minsk Agreement under the political commitment of the United States and Europe. This is why the future peace plan cannot be limited to the coordination between Russia, Ukraine, the United States and Europe, and other countries need to participate.

On November 19, local time, some pictures of the explosion of GRAU armory appeared on overseas social platforms.

It is worth noting that out of concern that Trump may force Ukraine to compromise with Russia after taking office, Biden will not only consider how to characterize the Ukrainian crisis as a "legacy" in the last two months of his administration, especially how to unite allies to contain Russia’s achievements, but also pay attention to how to create a "trap", vigorously promote NATO to fulfill its existing military aid commitments, and strengthen Ukraine’s offensive and defensive capabilities on the battlefield and its negotiating position outside the battlefield.

At the same time, Biden may tolerate or even let the limited controllable escalation of the battlefield, preventing Trump from making a deal with Russia as a "abandoned child". Recently, Biden’s lifting of Ukraine’s restrictions on using long-range weapons aided by the United States to attack targets in Russia is an example of this change in position. On November 19th, the "RBC- Ukraine" news agency quoted an insider of the Ukrainian army as saying that the Ukrainian army had used ATACMS to attack a military facility near Karachev, Bryansk, Russia.

At the same time, the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea has aroused great concern from all sides at a critical period when the Ukrainian crisis may enter "talking while fighting".

Theoretically, the military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK under the framework of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty belongs to the category of bilateral relations in nature, and the article 4 of the Treaty concerning "military mutual assistance" cannot be simply equated with the NATO standard "military alliance". According to the Treaty, when Russia and the DPRK provide military assistance to each other in the face of aggression or in a state of war, it is necessary to comply with Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations and relevant domestic laws.

Judging from the background and content of the signing of the Treaty, it remains to be seen whether military cooperation based on similar environmental perception, interest perception and strategic needs can solve the shortcomings of the fragility and singleness of mutually beneficial relations.

On November 16th, the Financial Times quoted the Ukrainian intelligence assessment report as saying that North Korea had provided Russia with 50 170mm M1989 self-propelled howitzers and 20 upgraded 240mm multi-barrel rocket launching systems. The picture shows the "main gun" shot in Russia.

For China, such cooperation may strengthen the linkage between "European security" and "Asian security", and provide more "reasons" for NATO members in Europe to strengthen their substantive presence in the Asia-Pacific region. If the military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK goes beyond the geographical restrictions, it may break the consensus that a third country does not directly intervene in the Ukrainian crisis, causing concern about the spillover of the battlefield and the escalation of war.

Considering the high political sensitivity of this issue, it is believed that Russia will give priority to its own territory in positioning military cooperation, and may refer to the mode of NATO’s military advisers, technicians and various mercenaries and volunteers stationed in Ukraine to create a "gray zone" for military mutual assistance, so as to avoid sending North Korean soldiers to eastern Ukraine to directly participate in combat, thus triggering a qualitative change in the Ukrainian crisis.

What needs to be made clear is that China’s main concern is to ensure that there will be no war and chaos on the peninsula and that the "battlefield will not spill over, the war will not escalate, and all parties will not fire" in the Ukrainian crisis.

Since creating the image of "President of Peace" may become one of the main contents of Trump’s political legacy, he may seek positive interaction with China in order to promote the Ukrainian crisis, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the relaxation and stability of the situation on the peninsula after taking office. The dialogue between China and the United States on these international and regional hot issues is also expected to become a lubricant for the fierce struggle between the two countries on issues such as economy, trade, science and technology.

But frankly speaking, Trump’s interest in bringing China into the Ukrainian peace process may be limited until his unilateral "persuasion and promotion of talks" encounters resistance or even fails.

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Original title: "Trump can immediately end the Russian-Ukrainian war when he takes office? This may be an illusion.

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　　As the Palestinian-Israeli conflict enters the third week, all parties pay more and more attention to the conflict. According to CCTV news reports, on October 20, local time, US President Biden, who had just visited Israel, applied to the US Congress to pass a special budget bill, increasing the budget by 105 billion US dollars for the overall assistance programs in Ukraine, Israel and strengthening America’s own security.

　　It is worth noting that Biden’s move was put forward after his embarrassing trip to the Middle East. On the 18th, Biden arrived in Israel to visit many countries in the Middle East. However, the Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza was attacked, and Jordan and other countries cancelled the scheduled high-level meeting. This move undoubtedly gave Biden a cold shoulder during his trip to the Middle East, and Arab countries’ dissatisfaction with Israel and the United States was also evident.

　　Multinational leaders cancel meeting with Biden

　　According to Xinhua News Agency, Jordan announced in the early morning of October 18th that it would cancel the meeting of the leaders of Palestine, Jordan, Egypt and the United States scheduled for that day in Amman. Earlier, the Palestinian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that Israeli warplanes attacked the Ahli Arab Hospital (also known as Baptist Hospital) in the Gaza on the evening of 17th, while the Israeli military said that Israel had intelligence that rockets from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jehad) mistakenly hit the Gaza Baptist Hospital. However, Jehad denied the Israeli allegations.

　　After the attack on the Gaza hospital, the National Security Council issued a statement saying that the US government believed that the Israelis were not responsible for the incident. During his visit to Israel, Biden also promised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States would continue to support Israel.

　　Biden’s attitude caused dissatisfaction among Arab countries. According to the Global Times, Biden’s previous itinerary included a visit to Jordan after his visit to Israel, and a meeting with the King of Jordan, the Egyptian President and the Palestinian President at a summit in Amman, Jordan, to discuss how to ease the situation between Palestine and Israel. However, the attack on the Gaza hospital and the United States’ position of favoring Israel caused public anger in Arab countries, and the three countries announced that they would cancel their meeting with Biden.

　　Abdel-Khalek Abdul Khaleq Abdulla, a retired professor of political science and a member of Emirati Thinkers in the United Arab Emirates, pointed out that Arab countries were shocked by Biden’s position of "protecting" Israel. "Now I feel that the United States is an accomplice in various crimes against Palestinians." He added, "Arab countries are now trying to ignore Biden and avoid meeting him."

　　The Jordanian government also issued a statement saying that the summit will be rescheduled after all parties agree to end the "massacre of Palestinians". "It is not good for anyone to hold a summit at this time, and it is not good for the end of the war, so we decided to cancel this meeting." Ayman Safadi, Jordan’s foreign minister, said.

　　Protests broke out in many countries in the Middle East.

　　Many countries in the Middle East have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the attack on Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi expressed strong concern and condemnation of the attack on the hospital. King Abdullah II of Jordan strongly condemned the Israeli air raid on the hospital in Gaza and warned that the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict "has entered a dangerous stage". Queen Rania Abdullah of Jordan posted on social platforms that she was "shocked" by the explosion.

　　"This massacre is a war crime, an insult to mankind and a stain on the world conscience." Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the attack "the latest example of Israel’s lack of the most basic human values in its actions".

　　In addition to official statements, protests and rallies broke out in many countries. People from Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Syria and other countries took to the streets to launch protests against the United States and Israel. The embassies of the United States and Israel in Lebanon, Jordan and other countries were also surrounded by the assembly crowd. Protesters used various slogans to express their anger against Israel, and many diplomatic institutions in the United States and Israel were even set on fire. Anger even spread to North Africa, and protests against the United States and Israel took place in Tunisia, Morocco and Libya, with thousands of people participating.

　　"Against occupation! Say no to the United States! " Tens of thousands of Iraqi protesters gathered in Tahrir Square in Baghdad, waving the flags of Palestine and Iraq, and a huge Israeli flag was placed on the ground for protesters to trample on.

　　The same thing happened in Iran. Thousands of Iranians gathered in the capital Tehran, holding the flags of Palestine and Hezbollah and shouting slogans to show their support for Palestine. In Jordan, thousands of people gathered around the Israeli Embassy in Amman. People took to the streets to condemn Israel’s continuous bombing of the Gaza Strip, and protesters tried to attack the Israeli Embassy. Jordanian police had to use tear gas to disperse them.

　　Us "safe passage" proposal attracts dissatisfaction from Jordan and Egypt

　　In addition to the attack on Gaza Hospital, the proposal of "safe passage" in the United States is also one of the reasons why countries in the Middle East have lost enthusiasm for Biden’s visit. Egypt and Israel border on Palestine, and both countries strongly oppose the U.S. plan to establish a safe passage for Palestinians fleeing from Gaza on the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt bordering Gaza.

　　Since the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7, the United States has been trying to discuss with Jordan and Egypt about the establishment of a "safe corridor", but the implementation of the plan has been frequently blocked because of the interests of all parties involved. Biden once said that during his visit to Israel, he talked with Egyptian leaders to discuss the opening of Rafah port for material transportation and personnel evacuation, but in the end, Egypt only agreed to the proposal of restarting the port to transport humanitarian relief supplies.

　　The proposal of the United States to establish a "safe passage" has aroused anger in the Arab world. According to analysis, it is very likely that Israel will reduce the Palestinian population in the Gaza by this way, so as to reoccupy the Gaza Strip and make the Palestinians homeless again, making it difficult for them to return home. King Abdullah II of Jordan said that neither Jordan nor Egypt would accept refugees from Gaza, and hinted that any proposal to let these two countries accept refugees from Gaza was a "common trick".

　　Egyptian newspapers commented that the idea of the United States "driving out" Palestinians from their homes this time would be a repeat of "Disaster Day in 1948", when about 700,000 Palestinians fled or were driven out of their homes in the Middle East war, accounting for about half of the total Palestinian population at that time. Egyptian President Seyce said that the presence of Gaza in the Sinai Peninsula may also make the peninsula a base for anti-Israeli militants, which will lead to Israel’s attack on Egypt and expand the scope of the war.

　　Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Choucairy said that just as the United States and Europe are sensitive to the influx of refugees, so is Egypt.

　　Protests and demonstrations in Washington, new york and Chicago.

　　In addition to the opposition and protests in the Arab world, many protests and demonstrations broke out in the United States because Biden’s government supported Israel’s position.

　　According to CCTV news reports, since the outbreak of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, many Americans believe that the United States’ provision of military weapons to Israel is equivalent to giving Israel "absolute freedom" to do "anything" to Palestine.

　　On October 18th, local time, many pro-Palestinian people staged protests in the area near the Capitol in Washington, D.C., demanding that the U.S. government promote a ceasefire between Palestine and Israel, and more than 350 people entered the House of Representatives office building near the U.S. Capitol for demonstrations. According to the Global Times, residents of new york, Chicago, Los Angeles and other American cities also held demonstrations on October 21st.

　　At the same time, there are more and more voices in Biden’s government that openly oppose Biden’s continued military assistance to Israel. Josh Paul, a the State Council official in charge of the Congressional Liaison Office dealing with foreign arms sales, resigned on October 18th because of the US policy of supplying weapons to Israel.

　　"I can’t support a series of major policy decisions, including throwing more weapons at one side of the conflict. I think this is short-sighted, destructive and unfair, and contradicts the values we openly support." Paul wrote in a statement.

　　The Senate controlled by the Democratic Party plans to act quickly on Biden’s proposal to provide assistance to Israel and Ukraine, hoping to put pressure on the House of Representatives controlled by the Republican Party. However, there are also differences within the Senate on how to advance. Eight Republicans, led by Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas, said they did not want to combine aid to Ukraine and Israel into the same legislation.

　　"These are two independent and unrelated conflicts. It is wrong to use aid support to Israel to try to provide additional aid to Ukraine." The above eight Republicans wrote in a letter.