Global News ｜ US stocks soared across the board. The Dow rose 3.57%. Tesla’s surge helped Musk’s net worth increase by 20.9 billion.

[US stock index]

On Wednesday, November 6, US Eastern Time, the three major indexes of US stocks broke out across the board, among which the S&P 500 index rose 2.53% to 5929.04 points. The Dow Jones index rose 3.57% to 43,729.93 points; The Nasdaq index rose 2.95% to 18,983.46.

American debt

On November 6, the benchmark 10-year US bond yield was 4.42%, and the 2-year US bond yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed’s policy interest rate, was 4.27%.

[Hot American stocks]

Among the popular US stocks, NVIDIA rose 4.07%, Apple fell 0.33%, Microsoft rose 2.12%, Google C rose 4.04%, Amazon rose 3.81%, Google A rose 3.99%, Meta fell 0.07%, TSMC fell 1.23%, Tesla rose 14.75%, AMD rose 2.43% and Intel rose 7.42.

[global index]

[China index]

On November 6th, Hang Seng Technology Index futures fell by 2.40% overnight, Nasdaq China Jinlong Index fell by 1.83%, and FTSE China A50 Index fell by 1.17%.

[China Stock Exchange]

In terms of popular Chinese stocks, Tencent Holdings (Hong Kong stocks) fell by 1.87%, Alibaba by 2.49%, Pinduoduo by 1.29%, Netease by 0.23%, Ctrip by 1.99%, Baidu by 1.05%, LI by 3.25%, Xpeng Motors by 3.98% and Weilai by 5.21%.

[foreign exchange commodities]

[Global News]

Musk’s net worth increased by $20.9 billion, ranking as the richest man in the world.

After Trump, supported by Musk, won the US presidential election, Tesla closed up 14.75% on Wednesday. According to the data of Forbes Rich List, Tesla’s surge has increased the net worth of Musk, the founder and CEO of Tesla, by $20.9 billion in a single day, with total assets reaching $285.6 billion, far exceeding Jeff Bezos, who ranks second in the global rich list.

The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in November is 99.4%.

According to CME’s "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 99.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0.6%. The cumulative rate cut by 25 basis points in December is 32.0%, the cumulative rate cut by 50 basis points is 67.6%, and the cumulative rate cut by 75 basis points is 0.4%.

JPMorgan Chase’s adjustment of Fed policy is expected to cut interest rates quarter by quarter from March.

JPMorgan Chase adjusted his forecast on the interest rate path of the Federal Reserve after Trump won the presidential election, and predicted that the Fed would cut interest rates quarterly from March. Economist Michael Feroli wrote in a report on Wednesday that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month and December, and then cut interest rates quarterly from March until the federal funds rate reaches 3.5%. Trump’s ability to reshape the Fed may only be realized slowly over time.

Guindos, Vice President of the European Central Bank: If Trump implements the tariff plan, inflation will face a huge impact

Guindos, vice president of the European Central Bank, said that if Trump implements the import tariff level he threatened during the election campaign, global economic growth and inflation may face a devastating impact. Guindos said at an event in London on Wednesday that economic output will weaken, price pressure will increase and existing trade flows will be disturbed. The European Central Bank will incorporate any policies announced by the new US administration into its outlook before deciding how to respond. Guindos said that policy makers will continue to be guided by data, and pay special attention to the bank loan survey to determine whether the financing environment is stimulating or restrictive. He said that the forecast scheduled to be released next month will not be much different from that in September.

Influenced by Trump’s victory, Nomura expects the Fed to cut interest rates only once in 2025.

After Donald Trump won the presidential election, Nomura economists now expect the Fed to cut interest rates only once in 2025 and raise the terminal interest rate forecast by 50 basis points to 3.625%. Economists such as David Seif wrote in the report: "We expect Trump to honor the campaign proposal of raising tariffs, which will significantly push up inflation and lead to a moderate slowdown in growth in the short term." They had expected to cut interest rates four times in 2025.

S&P 500 financial sector and industrial sector hit record highs.

The S&P 500 financial sector and industrial sector hit record highs.

"Fed mouthpiece": If the Republican Party "sweeps" both houses, the Fed may revise its "basic hypothesis" in December.

On November 6th, after Trump announced "winning the election", the Wall Street Journal reporter NickTimiraos, who is known as the "New Fed News Agency", published the latest article, saying that Trump’s election will not affect the Fed’s position on monetary policy at present, and if the Republican Party "sweeps" the House and Senate at the same time, the wording of the "basic hypothesis" may be revised at the December meeting. Timiraos said that considering that the Fed’s interest rate cut of 25 basis points this week is almost certain, the focus of the market has turned to: How many times does the Fed need to cut interest rates before achieving a "soft landing" of the US economy? Fed officials are expected to continue to give ambiguous answers this week: it depends on the specific situation. Timiraos believes that as the Federal Reserve gradually cuts interest rates, the question about the end point will become more difficult. If the economy performs well, officials who think the neutral interest rate is high may eventually want to slow down the rate cut to avoid exceeding the neutral level.

The Federal Reserve’s resolution was postponed by one day because of the US election.

Affected by the US election and winter time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 03:00 am on Friday, November 8, Beijing time. According to the usual practice, the Federal Reserve held a meeting on interest rates on Tuesday and Wednesday, and announced the results of the resolution in the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time. However, this time it happened to catch up with the US election vote, so the Fed’s meeting on interest rates was postponed for one day.

The market slightly lowered its expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cut this year.

The market slightly lowered its expectation of the Fed’s interest rate cut this year, and it is now expected to cut interest rates by 41 basis points at the meetings in November and December.

Nasdaq OMX Group warned about the pressure in some derivatives markets.

Nasdaq OMX Group warned about the stress in some derivatives markets.